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DSSAT-SUBSTOR马铃薯模型的参数 敏感性分析及适宜性评价
段丁丁,何英彬,于金宽,刘莉,徐瑞阳,李文娟
0
(中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京 100081;浙江大学农业遥感与信息技术应用研究所,杭州 310058;中国科学院重庆绿色智能技术研究院,重庆 400714)
摘要:
对DSSAT-SUBSTOR马铃薯模型进行参数敏感性分析及适宜性评价,是利用模型进行马铃薯业务化估产的关键一步。利用全局敏感性分析方法EFAST对模型的32个输入参数进行敏感性分析;采用实测数据对马铃薯的品种遗传参数进行标定,以出苗日、块茎起始日、最大LAI值和产量作为适宜性评价指标;通过调节品种遗传参数,分析其对4个适宜性评价指标的影响机理。结果表明,对产量敏感的品种遗传参数包括:块茎开始生长的临界温度上限(TC)、光周期系数(P2)、潜在块茎生长率(G3),其全局敏感性指数分别为0.69、0.35和0.22;土壤参数包括:根生长系数(SRGF)、土壤排水上限(SDUL)、排水率(SLDR)、有机碳含率(SLOC)、土壤总氮含率(SLNI)、土壤溶液pH值(SLHW),其全局敏感性指数依次为0.49、0.28、0.19、0.17、0.15和0.12;田间管理参数包括:播种日期(PDATE)、灌溉日期(IDATE)、灌溉量(IRAVI)和施氮量(FAMN),其全局敏感性指数依次为:0.63、0.41、0.33和0.18。DSSAT-SUBSTOR模型在研究区域内有很强的适宜性:实测出苗日与模型模拟值相同,实测块茎起始日与模拟值相差1 d,实测最大LAI值与模拟值的决定系数R2=0.918 8,实测单产与模拟值的相对误差为5.72%。5个品种遗传参数均不能决定马铃薯的出苗日(EDAPS),但对产量(UYAHS)和最大LAI值(LAIS)均有不同程度的影响,光周期系数(P2)和块茎开始生长的临界温度上限(TC)会对块茎起始日(TDAPM)产生不同影响。研究结果可为DSSAT-SUBSTOR马铃薯模型的参数优化和区域应用提供科学理论基础。
关键词:  DSSAT模型  马铃薯  敏感性分析  EFAST方法  适宜性
DOI:10.13610/j.cnki.1672-352x.20190717.007
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41771562)和中国农业科学院十三五创新工程共同资助。
Parameter sensitivity analysis and suitability evaluation of DSSAT-SUBSTOR potato model
DUAN Dingding,HE Yingbin,YU Jinkuan,LIU Li,XU Ruiyang,LI Wenjuan
(Institute of Agriculture Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100081;Institute of Agriculture Remote Sensing and Information Application, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 301158;Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of sciences, Chongqing 400714)
Abstract:
Parameter sensitivity analysis and suitability evaluation of the DSSAT-SUBSTOR potato model is a key step in the estimation of potato yield using the model. In this paper, global sensitivity analysis method EFAST was used to analyze the sensitivity of 32 input parameters of the model, the measured data were used to calibrate the genetic parameters of potato varieties, and the emergence date, tuber start date, maximum LAI value and yield were used as the evaluation indexes for suitability. By adjusting cultivar genetic parameters, the influencing mechanism of the genetic parameters on 4 suitability evaluation indexes was analyzed. The results showed that: the sensitive parameters of yield include: upper critical temperature limit (TC), photoperiod coefficient (P2), and potential tuber growth rate (G3),the global sensitivity indexes was 0.69, 0.35 and 0.22, respectively. Soil parameters include: root growth coefficient (SRGF), soil drainage upper limit (SDUL), drainage rate (SLDR), and organic carbon content (in the beginning of tuber growth). SLOC), soil total nitrogen content
Key words:  DSSAT-SUBSTOR model  potato  sensitivity analysis  EFAST method  suitability

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