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上海市城市化水平对碳排放的影响
蔡苗苗,赵明,吴开亚
0
(合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,合肥 230009;复旦大学公共管理与公共政策创新基地,上海 200433)
摘要:
城市化与能源碳排放密切相关,采用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验方法分析上海市城市化水平对碳排放的影响。结果表明,上海市城市化水平与碳排放之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,城市化水平是碳排放的格兰杰原因。人口、经济、能源和技术等因素与碳排放也存在着长期稳定的协整关系。模型模拟显示,常住人口数量、人均GDP、一次能源消费量和碳排放强度等因素对碳排放影响的弹性系数为正值,而老龄化率、恩格尔系数、能源结构系数、能源强度和平均碳排放系数等因素对碳排放影响的弹性系数为负值。
关键词:  城市化  碳排放  协整分析  格兰杰因果检验  上海
DOI:10.13610/j.cnki.1672-352x.20170208.007
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(71573045)资助。
Impact of urbanization on carbon emission in Shanghai
CAI Miaomiao,ZHAO Ming,WU Kaiya
(School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009;National Innovative Institute for Public Management and Public Policy, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433)
Abstract:
Urbanization has a close relationship with carbon emission. In this paper, we researched the relationship between urbanization level and carbon emissions of Shanghai using co-integration analysis and granger causality test. Results showed that there is a long-term stable co-integration relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions in Shanghai, and the urbanization level is the granger cause of carbon emissions. The model simulation result showed that resident population, per capita GDP, primary energy consumption, and carbon emission intensity have positive elastic coefficient on carbon emissions, while the aging rate, Engel coefficient, energy structure coefficient, energy intensity, and average carbon emission coefficient have negative elastic coefficient on carbon emissions. The results can provide decision-making basis for Shanghai’s urban development and reduction of carbon emissions caused by energy consumption.
Key words:  urbanization  carbon emission  co-integration analysis  granger causality test  Shanghai

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