引用本文:[点击复制]
[点击复制]
【打印本页】【下载PDF全文】 查看/发表评论下载PDF阅读器关闭

←前一篇|后一篇→

过刊浏览    高级检索

本文已被:浏览次   下载 本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
基于GIS的黑龙江大兴安岭森林雷击火发生概率预测模型
王金荣,史明昌,姜恩来,于文华,孙瑜
0
(国家林业局华东林业调查规划设计院,杭州310019;北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京 100083;北京市水利自动化研究所,北京 100036)
摘要:
收集2006年至2011年4 - 10月每日的雷击定位数据、气象数据、可燃物数据及雷击引发的火灾数据,结合黑龙江大兴安岭地区的地形特征及森林雷击火发生的特点,引进加拿大火险天气指标(FWI),拟合出黑龙江大兴安岭林区雷击引发持续闷燃火的概率模型。对该模型进行HL检验,结果表明拟合效果良好,模型拟合精度为55%。2006-2011年每日雷击火发生数量的观测值与预测值的拟合关系为N(观测)=0.8368 N(预测)R2=0.732。基于该模型开发出黑龙江大兴安岭森林雷击火预测系统,系统试运行结果表明,该系统在雷击火高发季节,预测雷击火发生的准确率达31.5%。
关键词:  GIS  大兴安岭  雷击火发生概率  预测模型
DOI:10.13610/j.cnki.1672-352x.20150825.022
基金项目:国家林业局“948”引进项目(2008?4?51)和《国家标准<林火阻隔系统设计规范>编制》项目(原建设部建标[2007]126号)资助。。
A GIS-based lightning-caused fire probability prediction model in Daxing’an Mountains of Heilongjiang Province
WANG Jinrong,SHI Mingchang,JIANG Enlai,YU Wenhua,SUN Yu
(East China Forest Inventory and Planning Institute, Hangzhou 310019;School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083;Beijing Research Institute of Hydraulic Automation, Beijing 100036)
Abstract:
This paper presents a gis-based model to predict the probability that a lightning strike will cause a sustainable ignition in Daxing’an Mountains in Heilongjiang Province. Daily data of lightning position, climate factors, combustible and the number of fires caused by lightening from April 2006 to October 2011 in the studied area were collected to develop a fitting model by logistic regression. In the process, Canadian forest fire weather index (FWI) was introduced to select independent variables and topographic features together with characteristics of lightning-caused fire were considered when independent variables were calculated. A good fitting result was showed by Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The correlation between daily observed and modeled number of lightning-caused fires is not significantly different from y=x. The developed forest lightening fire predicting system based on the model was put into a trial operation in Daxing’an Mountains successfully predicted 31.5% of all the fires.
Key words:  GIS  Daxing’an Mountains  probability of lightening-caused fires  prediction model

用微信扫一扫

用微信扫一扫