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合肥市平均气温动态变化的非平稳时序分析
罗妤,吴坚,徐鑫晶
0
(安徽农业大学信息与计算机学院,合肥 230036)
摘要:
近100多年来,全球平均气温经历了冷—暖—冷—暖2次波动,总体上为上升趋势。进入20世纪80年代后,全球气温明显上升。1981~1990年全球平均气温比100年前上升了0.48℃,近年来气候变化也有越来越恶劣的趋势。利用时间序列分析建立非平稳时序模型,研究自1985~2009年合肥市平均气温动态变化数据,对合肥市近25年来的气候变化进行分析,通过数据的分析处理,建立拟合函数进行预测,希望对未来合肥市气温变化提供参考。
关键词:  非平稳时序  趋势变化项r(t)  周期变化项v(t)  随机处理项x(t)
DOI:
投稿时间:2012-04-20
基金项目:河南省科技攻关项目(132102110127)和郑州市科技领军人才项目(10LJRC177)共同资助。
Application of non-stationary time series analysis in dynamic change of average temperature in Hefei city
LUO Yu,WU Jian,XU Xin-jing
(School of Information and Computer Science, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036)
Abstract:
Nearly 100 years, the global mean temperature experienced two waves as cold-warm-cold-warm, in a rising trend on the whole. In the late 1980’s, global temperature rose significantly. The average global temperature during the period of 1981-1990 was 0.48℃ higher than that 100 years before. In recent years, the climate has a trend of getting worse. In this paper, a time series analysis was used to set up a non-stationary time series model for studying the dynamic change of average temperature in Hefei city during the period of 1985-2009. As a result, through the analysis the climatic change of the past 25 years in Hefei city, a fitting function was established to forecast the climate of Hefei city in the future
Key words:  non-stationary time series analysis  trend change item r(t)  periodic change v(t)  random processing item x(t)

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