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滁州市人口规模预测模型比较研究
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摘要:
本文基于生态安全的角度,主要运用计量经济学、统计学的有关方法,根据几种常用人口预测模型的特点和适用条件,利用人口历史统计数据建立预测模型,分时段进行预测,预测出2010-2020年人口规模,针对滁州市的人口形势提出人口控制对策,为滁州市的人口规划及未来的社会经济发展战略提供相关的数据依据.
关键词:  生态安全  人口预测分析  滁州市
DOI:
修订日期:2007-04-03
基金项目:国家自然科学基金
Comparative study on prediction models of population scale in Chuzhou city
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Abstract:
This paper analyzed the characteristics and requirement of several population prediction models.Population prediction models were established based on historical demographical data and population was predicted periodically and compared to actual values.According to the population situation from 2010 to 2020,a population control project is put forward,so as to provide the data on the census taking in behavior programming and the future social economy development strategy plan for Chuzhou government.
Key words:  ecological security,forecasting analysis for population,Chuzhou city

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