In order to clarify the status of ecological carrying capacity of the Tianmu Mountain-Huaiyu Mountain water conservation and biodiversity conservation important areas in recent 10 years, an evaluation index system was constructed based on social development pressure, economic development pressure, resources and environmental support, and ecological elasticity. The projection pursuit model was used to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity in the Tianmu Mountain-Huaiyu Mountain water conservation and biodiversity conservation important areas from 2008 to 2017. The results showed that the tertiary industry of GDP per capita gross domestic product (GDP), general industrial solid waste production and forest coverage rate in the study area had a signifycant influence on urban ecological carrying capacity. From urban ecological carrying capacity evaluation grade, there were 6 cities with basic safety, 5 cities with less safety, and two cities with no safety in 2008. In 2017, there were 1 city with a safer ecological carrying capacity evaluation grade, 1 city with a basic safety grade, 7 cities with a less safe grade, and 4 cities with an unsafe grade. The ecological carrying capacity of 5 cities showed an upward trend, and that of 8 cities showed a downward trend from 2008 to 2017. The spatial distribution of urban ecological carrying capacity showed that decrease from the center to the north and the south in research area.