为优化温室盆栽金鱼草光温调控精度，以‘红姬’品种为研究对象，通过不同定植期和密度试验，以辐热积（Product of thermal effectiveness and PAR，TEP）为尺度，建立了温室盆栽金鱼草生长发育的模型，并用独立试验数据检验了模型预测精度。结果表明，模型对萌芽期、展叶期、花蕾期和采收期的时间预测符合度较高，模拟值与实测值基于1：1直线间的决定系数R2为 0.95，回归估计标准误差RMSE分别为 1.3、1.7、2.3和1.8 d，预测精度明显高于以有效积温为尺度的发育模型（RMSE分别为 2.6、2.5、3.9和3.2 d）。模型对株高、茎粗、叶片数、花苞数和干物质量的模拟值与实测值的决定系数R2分别为 0.94、0.92、0.96、0.97和0.91，RMSE分别为6.9 cm、0.4 cm、5.8、2.2和1.27 g·株-1。该研究建立的模型能够较准确地预测温室盆栽金鱼草各生育期出现时间、植株形态和干物质生产的动态。建立的模型参数少且易获取，且预测精度较高，可为温室金鱼草生产中种植期、种植密度及环境的优化调控提供理论依据和决策支持。
In order to optimize radiation and temperature conditions inside greenhouse, a model of plant growth and development of Antirrhinum majus ‘Hongji’ was developed using production of thermal and PAR (TEP) as a prediction index through adjusting planting date and planting density. Independent experimental data were used to validate the model. The results showed that the model could give satisfactory predictions at four development stages (sprouting, leaf unfolding, flowering and harvesting). Based on the 1:1correlation line, the coefficient of determination (R2) between simulated and measured growth stages was 0.95, and the root mean squared errors (RMSE) were 1.3, 1.7, 2.3 and 1.8 days for the four stages, respectively. The model developed in this study made it more accurate in prediction of growth stages than that with GDD -(growing degree days ) based model (with RMSE of 2.6, 2.5, 3.9 and 3.2 days, respectively). Based on the 1:1 line, R2 and RMSE between simulated and measured plant height, diameter of basilar stem, number of leaf, number of flower bud and total biomass production were 0.94, 0.92, 0.96, 0.97, and 0.91 and 6.9 cm, 0.4 cm, 5.8, 2.2, and 1.27 g/plant, respectively. Based on the results of this study, it can be concluded that the developed model can satisfactorily predict variations of the growth stage, plant morphology and biomass production of the potted Antirrhinum majus. Hence, it can be used for decision making in precision control of light and temperature and optimizing planting date and density for Antirrhinum majus in greenhouse.