Four meteorological factors,which are closely related to epidemic of bacterial leaf blight of middle rice,were selected for stage forecast of this disease,and the middle term and short term forecast model were established by means of progressive discrimination analyses and progressive regression analyses.The results showed that the according percentage with nistorical data were 93 8% (middle term forecast model) and 100% (short term forecast model) and the forecasting accuracy was also satisfying from 1996 to 1998.